Imagine waking up to find your car swept out to sea, your campsite submerged, and your vacation turned into a disaster zone. That's what happened to hundreds of holidaymakers along Victoria's surf coast recently, and a crucial question is being asked: Were the flash flood warnings issued in time? Authorities are standing by their response, but many are left wondering if more could have been done to prevent the chaos.
On a Thursday that will be remembered for its ferocity, an "unprecedented" downpour hammered Victoria's surf coast. Wye River, in particular, bore the brunt, with a staggering 180mm of rain falling in a short period. This deluge triggered flash flooding in the Wye, Kennett, and Cumberland rivers, turning campgrounds into lakes and sending vehicles tumbling into the ocean. Approximately 400 people found themselves displaced, their belongings lost or ruined, and dozens of cars rendered unusable.
Colac mayor Jason Schram voiced a common concern, questioning the adequacy of the warnings. "The big question I’ve got to those in charge is, how could they not predict 180 [millimetres] of rainfall in that catchment?" he stated, highlighting the widespread feeling that the severity of the event should have been foreseen. The aftermath, as described by Schram, was a scene of devastation: "It’s pretty messy, with mud, debris and, of course, everyone’s personal belongings, caravans, camping gear."
Dharni Giri, spokesperson for Victoria’s emergency management authority, the State Control Centre, defended the response, emphasizing the exceptional nature of the weather. "We got over 180 millimetres of rain in just a six-hour period. Because of the terrain where the rain fell, it accelerates the water flows down through the river systems coming off of Mount Kelly," she explained. This rainfall shattered records, surpassing the previous one-day high of 123.2mm set on September 30, 2021, in Lorne.
Giri asserted that over 10,000 people in the affected area received text alerts urging them to seek higher ground. "So, in our eyes, warnings were not issued late," she stated firmly. "It was an unprecedented weather event, and our response was pretty incredible when you think about how quickly it happened and how quickly we were able to mobilise SES crews, the local CF brigade, and other emergency partners." She also emphasized a crucial point: "Thank God, we haven’t had any deaths or injuries as a result of what happened yesterday, and it’s probably because of the quick action that emergency services took when we did get reports of that flooding."
But here's where it gets controversial... Some argue that even with rapid response, earlier, more specific warnings could have mitigated the damage. Was the technology available to predict this level of rainfall with greater accuracy, and if so, why wasn't it utilized to its full potential? This is a question that deserves serious consideration.
A spokesperson for the Bureau of Meteorology provided further details, noting that conditions were closely monitored throughout the day. After 45mm of rain fell in just one hour at Mount Cowley, near Lorne, a severe weather warning was issued at 11:57am AEDT. "A severe thunderstorm warning for heavy rainfall that may lead to flash flooding was issued at 11:57am AEDT," the spokesperson said. "This warning was soon escalated to include intense rainfall with the risk of flash flooding over the Surf Coast as the rainfall observations continued to climb rapidly at Mt Cowley. This warning also prompted the SES to issue their own Watch and Act warning for the area."
Senior meteorologist Angus Hines warned that the danger isn't over, with more flash flooding expected across southern NSW and Victoria. "There is a severe weather warning for Friday," Hines said. "We can see it extends from Wollongong down to the Victorian border, covering the South Coast area and parts of the Illawarra in this region. We’ll likely see some damaging wind gusts on Friday, up to about 100km an hour. We will also see some heavy, persistent rain." He added that the Illawarra and south coast of NSW could receive between 150 and 200mm of rain between Thursday afternoon and Saturday night, leading to "significant" flash flooding. "Where heavy rain occurs, either with thunderstorms or in the severe weather warning area, there’s likely to be disruption and delays to travel and transport, including road closures," he cautioned. "It’s going to be very rough on the coastline for boats and maybe even have an impact on flights and travel."
And this is the part most people miss... The extreme weather is also complicating efforts to combat ongoing bushfires. Severe winds are hindering firefighting efforts, with seven large blazes still burning across Victoria as of Friday afternoon. While the rain has brought some relief, cooler conditions have helped contain the Ravenswood/Harcourt and Wyperfeld national park fires. Authorities are urging communities to remain vigilant because more hot weather is forecast for next week.
"More than 411,000 hectares (1m acres) of land have been burnt as a result of these fires," Giri stated, emphasizing the scale of the devastation. "And a state of disaster remains in place until the eighth of February." Despite the immediate challenges, authorities are cautiously optimistic. "We aren’t expecting the catastrophic fire conditions that we had last Friday or about a week ago," Giri said. "But that being said, it’s definitely fire season and it’s definitely high-risk weather season, so we are asking communities, especially those in the impacted areas already, to just remain vigilant."
Zooming out, it's crucial to remember that these extreme weather events are not isolated incidents. A report from the Insurance Council of Australia warned in October that the climate crisis is making the country more vulnerable to such disasters. This week, the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) confirmed that 2025 continued a three-year streak of "extraordinary global temperatures," with surface air temperatures averaging 1.48C above preindustrial levels.
Ultimately, the Victoria surf coast flooding raises critical questions about preparedness, prediction, and response to increasingly frequent and severe weather events. Given the clear evidence of a changing climate, are we doing enough to protect communities from these threats? What steps can be taken to improve early warning systems and ensure that everyone receives timely and accurate information? And, perhaps most importantly, how can we build more resilient infrastructure and communities that are better equipped to withstand the impacts of a changing climate? Share your thoughts and experiences in the comments below. Do you believe the warnings were adequate? What more could have been done?
