Toronto Rainfall Warning: 20-40 mm of Rain Expected, Possible Flooding (2026)

Toronto is bracing for a substantial rainfall, with Environment Canada predicting between 20 and 40 millimeters of rain this Sunday afternoon.

As the weather unfolds, freezing rain is expected to start around noon near the western shores of Lake Ontario, gradually spreading eastward throughout the afternoon. During the day, residents can anticipate approximately 5 to 10 millimeters of rain, with the evening bringing an additional 20 to 30 millimeters accompanied by patches of fog.

In response to this potential deluge, Environment Canada has issued a yellow rainfall warning for Toronto, highlighting that some periods of rain may be particularly heavy. They also caution that the currently frozen ground will hamper the absorption of rainfall, which could lead to localized flooding in certain areas. As a result, some roads may become impassable due to the unexpected accumulation of water.

The rain is expected to taper off by Monday morning, but strong winds will continue to be a concern. Environment Canada warns that residents should prepare for gusts reaching up to 70 to 80 kilometers per hour on Monday. In light of these conditions, it’s advisable for Torontonians to clear storm drains of any snow or ice if possible, steer clear of low-lying areas, and avoid rivers, creeks, and culverts, as these locations may become hazardous.

The Toronto and Region Conservation Authority has also issued a statement indicating that water levels could rise significantly as a result of the anticipated rain. "The ground in TRCA watersheds remains frozen, preventing rain and melted snow from soaking into the soil, leading to increased runoff into rivers," the authority explained. They further warned that all shorelines, rivers, and streams within their jurisdiction should be treated with caution due to potentially rapidly changing conditions.

On Sunday, Toronto's weather will be predominantly cloudy, with temperatures peaking at 2 degrees Celsius but feeling much colder—around -8 degrees Celsius—due to wind chill effects. Wind gusts are expected to reach 40 kilometers per hour.

It's also worth noting the recent extreme weather, as Toronto experienced a significant snowfall on Boxing Day, adding to the unpredictable nature of winter in the region. Alongside the rainfall warning, Environment Canada is advising that local utility outages could occur due to the strong winds and potential damage to roofs, fences, branches, and other structures. Residents are encouraged to secure any loose items outside to prevent them from becoming projectiles in the gusty conditions.

Toronto Rainfall Warning: 20-40 mm of Rain Expected, Possible Flooding (2026)
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